It’s hard to believe but the NFL playoffs are here already. This weekend will officially kickoff the 2011 race to the Super Bowl with the wild card games. As always, there much speculation as to which teams have the upper hand in their respective games, but one game in particular stands out above the rest. This playoff race has plenty of room for solid wagers and lots of money for the taking. Let’s start at the beginning and go in order.
New Orleans Saints (10 ½) @ Seattle Seahawks
Saturday, January 8 – 4:30pm
This is a first ever: a 7-9 team making the NFL playoffs. Needless to say they are a severe underdog for their showcase against The Saints. When you look at the stats, the defending Super Bowl champs own the Hawks in just about every category including points, points against, passing yards, rushing yards, passing yards allowed, rushing yards allowed and point difference (a category in which the Hawks are sitting in negative digits). It would seem that betting straight up this would be an easy choice.
However, The Saints are coming off a loss going into the playoffs against the Buccaneers while Seattle is coming off a “playoff situation” win against St. Louis. Momentum is a huge factor in the playoffs as some teams get red hot at just the right time and make it all the way to the top when they were not expected to. Seattle even covered the 3 ½ point spread against the Rams.
This will be an interesting matchup. The Saints are heavily favored but the Seahawks are a hungry team. With the whole NFL barking that they don’t belong in the playoffs it may spark some “us against the world” mentality that ends up carrying them much further than expected.
Betting Trends
New Orleans is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games and 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games on the road. They are 5-1 SU on the road and when playing Seattle the total has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 6 outings. Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games and 2-5 ATS.
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New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts (-2 ½)
Saturday, January 8 – 8:20pm
A few weeks ago it was looking doubtful that Indianapolis would even make the playoffs, but here are sitting as favorites in the first round against the Jets. The Jets took a different route to the playoffs as they started off the season 9-1 and since then won only 2 games dropping them to the 6th seed in the playoffs.
This will be an interesting game for sure. The Colts have the high powered offense that can score quickly from anywhere on the field, but their defense is weak. Gunslinger Peyton Manning will be playing is standard fast-paced game and it will be up to the Jets defense to keep up with him.
On the other side of the ball, Mark Sanchez will have to match Manning’s brilliance and many skeptics are not so sure he has the ability to do so. As a young quarterback in the league and only his second appearance in the playoffs, Sanchez is bound to make mistakes. The Colts will be relying on this and will bring lots of pressure to hurry him in the pocket.
The Jets will their shot at redemption after being thwarted by The Colts in last year’s AFC championship game 30-17. Much like the Seahawks, The Jets are a hungry team.
Betting Trends
The Jets are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games and 11-3 SU in their 14 on the road. In the last 20 games against The Colts, the team has gone 6-14 SU. Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games and 2-4 ATS in its last 6. The Colts have an impressive home record of 21-4 SU in their last 25 games but just 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games at home. In 4 of the last 5 games these teams have met, the total has gone OVER.
Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 9 – 1:00pm
The Baltimore Ravens are a very strong team that came within inches of winning their division. With an identical record to Pittsburgh (12-4) it was only a slightly inferior record that cost them the title. Kansas City, although the higher seed, needs to treat The Ravens with the respect of a number 1 or 2 seeded team. If they can do this, they will have a better chance of beating them.
Baltimore has the 3rd ranked defense in the NFL while Kansas City had the 14th ranked offense. The Chiefs also have the worst passing road game in the league which mean the will have to rely on the running game to generate. This is a pretty serious undertaking when playing a defense like The Ravens.
Last week The Chiefs fell to the struggling Raiders, which does not reflect well on KC for the playoffs. The Ravens are coming off a win over their division opponent Cincinnati and have some momentum coming in to the playoffs, although they were hoping for a Pittsburgh loss to put them in the number 2 slot for the postseason.
Betting Trends
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in it’s the last 7 games and 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road. They are also 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 games on the road. Kansas City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games and 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home. In the last 5 games at home against Baltimore the total has gone UNDER 4 times.
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2 ½)
Sunday, January 9 – 4:30pm
This is going to be a very close game as both these teams have identical records and are evenly matched. The Packers took home a win against the division rival Bears in their last game of the regular season and with Aaron Rodgers healthy again are looking like a very serious competitor.
The Eagles are coming off a loss to the Cowboys in their last game – a 14-13 squeaker but nonetheless a loss to a subpar team. The Eagles have a number of questions on their bench, the most apparent being Michael Vick’s health. Vick sat out last week’s game nursing a hamstring injury and many speculate that the number of hits this year could be taking its toll on Vick. If Vick is not available to play, Kevin Kolb would have to step in which could end in disastrous results for the Eagles.
It tough to make an accurate prediction on this game before it starts. There are too many questions as to who will be healthy and what their capabilities will be if they are.
Betting Trends
Green Bay is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games but 2-5 SU in the last 7 games on the road. When playing Philadelphia in the last 17 games the Pack has gone 5-12 ATS. The Eagles are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games and 13-6 SU in their last 19 games at home. The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the last 8 games these teams have met.
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