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Over the years, numerous articles have been written on the topic of money management in sports betting but most have very little substance. This article is not going to criticize other systems. The goal here is to lay out and explain a money management system that is easy to understand, works long term, and can have a real impact on creating and retaining profit from your sports betting bankroll. The following is TodaysPicks.net money management system that has been proven to work over the long term.
It starts with two types of bets: straight bets and flat bets. Meaning, do not play the parlays, teasers, proposition bets etc that most sportsbooks like to promote. If you like the Steelers to cover the spread on a particular day, and the Cowboys and Vikings as well, you need to bet them all individually. If you win all three, wonderful, but winning 2 out of 3 are much more likely than winning 3 out of 3. 2 out of 3 produce a profit. Even winning just one of the three bets is not a bad result. Sure, it's not a winning day, but at least you got a small return on one game you did win. When you get into the habit of betting parlays and teasers, you will have to win all 3 games to win the parley. (which you have a 6 to 1 chance of doing).
Flat betting means to wager a similar amount on every game that you bet.
We'll talk about wager size as a percentage of bankroll in a in a couple minutes, but first we must discuss the idea in general. When you vary your bet size, it's easy to pick more winners than losers, but not bring home any profit as a result. Again, let's go back to the day where you like the Cowboys, Vikings and Steelers as well. Let's say you feel like the Steelers are the strongest pick of the day and you decide to bet $330 to win $300. Then you like the Vikings and Cowboys a bit less, betting $165 to win $150 on both of those. O.K. now, you win 2 out of 3. Unfortunately, the two that you won were the smaller bets, and on a day where you picked more winners than losers, you'll still lose money (if you pick more winners than losers, you should be in the “+” column. Specifically, you risked a total of $660, won 2 out of 3, and got back only $600, a loss of $60. Had you bet them all for the same amount, you would have a profit. For example, If you would have bet all 3 games the same, i.e., $220 to win $200, you'd have won $180. Same thing, winning two out of three; same amount of total cash risked, but one method shows profit, while the other shows loss. This is the key: When you vary your bet size, picking more winners than losers does not guarantee a profit. When you flat bet, keeping your bet size constant, regardless of how much you supposedly “like” the picks the results are extremely predictable. Win more games than you lose and you will make a profit every time.
Deciding how much to bet on each game is a bit more difficult, but it's not hard once you understand the basic concepts involved. The goal is to bet enough to maximize winnings while keeping some money in reserve to withstand any potential losing streak, because you could be the best handicapper in the world, but if you lose all your money during a “cold streak”, it’s over. You have to be conservative enough to keep yourself in action, during good times and bad. The amount of your bankroll will determine your bet size but I think your percentage of bankroll that you should be willing to risk on each and every play does vary depending on the size of your bankroll.
Here's why:
Most bettors begin with a small bankroll, $500 - $1000. For bettors with larger 'rolls a standard play involves around 2%-3% of their bankroll. For example, with $10,000 bankroll, the standard wager size should be between $220 to win $200 or $330 to win $300. But if you only have $200 to begin with, betting 2% of your bankroll equals a $4 bet. Not much excitement to win four dollars or much profit when you do win. That's why, with lesser bankrolls, I'd advise a more aggressive betting strategy for the short term; somewhere in the range of 5% - 7.5%. You have to be able to win something, and beginning bettors with this type of bankroll generally aren't as concerned from the start about riding out a “cold streak”. I would never recommend beginning to get involved with sports betting without a minimum of $500 in your bankroll, making a standard wager size in the $25 - $30 dollar range is conservative enough for beginning sports bettors.
Bettors with larger bankrolls must bet a lower percentage on each bet.
First, you have more to lose, so protecting your bankroll becomes important.
It's one thing to lose a $20 bill on a football game; it's quite another to lose a six figure bankroll. You must think about the consequences if you do lose, because losing, while very difficult, is a possible outcome. A rational bettor understands and accepts this risk and makes his or her decisions accordingly. When you've got $5,000 in several offshore sportsbooks, you can afford to take lesser risks to achieve your desired goal of making a profit. Again, the range of 2%-3% makes sense. You still make a nice profit when you win, and you limit your risk of losing your hard earned bankroll.
Straight bet and flat bet a specific percentage of your bankroll. That's the key. The hard part is having the discipline to do it every single game. No exceptions, no wild betting sprees or chasing to win back all the losses from a bad week all in one day. There isn't anyone reading this essay that hasn't seen a game that they absolutely were not sure it was a winner, a sure lock. The temptation is there to load up on these games, the ‘it's a lock to win’ mentality. The reality is that when a $50 bettor places a $500 wager on a game, it's no more likely to win than any other game that the same bettor puts $50 on. The goal is always the same: If you can pick more winners than losers, you should show a profit.
The term for this kind of betting pattern is 'grinding'. We're not looking to retire on one game. Sure, there's someone somewhere who hits a 10 team parlay every week, and there's someone else who risks his or her entire bankroll on a single game and wins that bet, ut there are many more who don't have that kind of success, and those that do have it rarely maintain that kind of “luck” over the long term. Sooner or later, they give back everything that they've won back to the bookie. The grinder’s method is much more likely to achieve positive results over the course of a single season.
The bottom line is this: don't look to get rich quick in this business because that's when the odds are really stacked against you. Professional sports bettors don't look for the 6-0 weekend. Rather, our goal is more like a 12-8 week that coveted 60% winners to losers’ ratio. A $110 bettor who goes 12-8 for a week will return $320 on a total investment of $2200 for the week, about a 15% return. Ask any stock market investor if they'd be content with a 15%-20% return for a week. If you can average that kind of return over the long term, you'll be winning games for years to come. Profits over the long term in this business can only be achieved with a solid money management system such as this one. Remember, be PATIENT, stay DISCIPLINED, and with the right MONEY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM, you will watch your bankroll grow to unimaginable levels.
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