NFL Week 10 Betting Preview
New Orleans at Atlanta – Sunday @ 1:00 p.m. ET
After a clunker of monumental proportions in St. Louis, the New Orleans Saints reacquainted themselves with the gods of football and are headed into a big matchup with the Falcons. Atlanta’s won three in a row including in Detroit and appear ready to defend their dome field advantage.
How they match up:
Saints D vs. Falcons O
The Saints were able to hold the Bucs to field goals after long ball-possessing drives. And they’re mid pack statistically. Their best defensive posture is to have the Saints offense keep the ball. The Saints only have four int’s but they have 20 sacks. The defense has been disruptive, causing 11 fumbles, although they’ve only recovered four. Safety Roman Harper must be accounted for.
Hard to say that the Falcons have beaten many of the league’s best. But the Falcons have scored 85 points in the last three weeks. That will build confidence in an offense that was struggling. Matt Ryan will have to keep pace with another rather effective quarterback. Thoroughly beating the Colts isn’t such a rare thing this season. Winning in Detroit is. Ryan did most of the dirty work last week, but the rushing game was there too.
This Saints defense is usually charged with holding the opposition to field goals and getting the ball back in the hands of the offense when possible. But Ryan’s confidence seems to be on the rise after a shaky start. The only way to prove he’s over that is a strong performance against the Saints.
Falcons D vs. Saints O
This defense has been effective against the run, not as much against the pass. They did hold the Packers to 25 which is nearly unheard of today. They haven’t given up 20 points in a game since October 2nd and only twice have opponents done that. The defense isn’t headline grabbing but they’ve kept the Falcons in close games and in the divisional race. Safety William Moore is possibly out for a while.
How do you stop an offense that has a dynamic quarterback, very good wide outs and multiple capable running backs? Well, three teams have. Drew Brees has been picked from time to time, but usually rapidly moves the team toward the end zone. Jimmy Graham is becoming a force for Brees and the Saints. RB Mark Ingram didn’t play last week. But the running back stable is far from empty.
The Falcons have a good if not special defense, one that will at least challenge Brees. New Orleans has been 20 points or over every week. Fast track usually favors New Orleans.
Who will cover the spread?
Atlanta can catch the Saints and take a short lead with a win at home. The unknowns: have the Falcons shaken off the iffy start or will they need to do more healing, will the real Saints show up or do they continue to go every other?
The Saints are 1-4 against the spread on the road. Atlanta is 1-0 against the spread at home. These are two teams that have defied logic from time to time. With a 1 point spread you are being asked to pick a winner. If that’s all you want to know, just click here and get our winning pick for only $20.
Detroit at Chicago – Sunday @ 1:00 p.m. ET
Fitting that these two teams are meeting this week. Detroit recovered after two straight losses to get the train back on track. The Bears won a huge Monday night game in Philly to keep post season hopes alive. But this one will be a statement game for one of these two teams.
How they match up:
Lions D vs. Bears O
The Lions have done much better against the pass than the run this season. In their first meeting, a 24-13 win, Detroit’s defense bent but didn’t break often. There were yards gained by the Bears. Chicago was held to 3 points in the second half. The Lions have put together a dominating defensive line. But the rest of the defense can be beaten if you can withstand the pressure.
Chicago has to be on a high following a game in which Matt Forte ran for 133. He did lose two fumbles. Most importantly, the Bears were at their best when the game was on the line. They took advantage of an Eagle defense that fades in the 4th quarter. Jay Cutler doesn’t put up big numbers but last week he didn’t throw the ball to the wrong team which is a pretty good thing.
Cutler will need his running game as the Lions’ pass defense has been their strong point. You can be sure that Suh and his teammates are intending to get after Cutler on Sunday.
Bears D vs. Lions O
It could be that the Chicago defensive numbers have been kept down because of the schedule they’ve played. The Saints and Packers hit ‘em for big numbers early, but they’ve been solid since. As long as Brian Urlacher is on the field, the Bears defense will have an edge. The defense hasn’t been as smothering as in the past but it’s no slouch. The record says they are giving the team a chance to win.
It’s always good to have a break and Detroit’s bye week gave them the rest they all get during a bye, but having a great scoring day like they had in Denver allows for some thought that the tough times may be over for the offense. With Calvin Johnson back, the arsenal is in place. The Lions’ offense was stymied by the Falcons and 49ers, good teams for sure. This will be a true test to see if Detroit’s mojo is back.
This could be a big day for Johnson. He had 5 catches and a TD in their first meeting. This is a running game that the Bears’ D may be able to handle. It’ll be important for Matthew Stafford to put pressure on the Bears’ defense.
Who will cover the spread?
Appropriate that these two teams may be battling for a wild card playoff spot until the end of the season. The winner gets the edge moving forward. The unknowns: is it the Bears who have come through their difficult times to be in position to make a run, or have the Lions shaken off their doldrums and are they ready to move away from their past years‘ failures?
The Lions are 3-0 against the spread on the road. The Bears are 2-1 against the spread as a favorite. This is another tossup with the home team a slight favorite, 2.5 points. If the home team gives 3 automatically then the Lions are given a slight edge. Don’t go away from this one late. These teams like to win on the way to the locker room. If you’d like to know who will be going to the happy locker room, click here and buy this NFL pick for only $20.
New York Giants at San Francisco – Sunday @ 4:15 p.m. ET
These teams are clearly in control in their divisions. The 49ers should just print playoff tickets. Not so fast with the Giants, but it’s better to have a two game lead than to not have a two game lead.
How they match up:
Giants D vs. 49ers O
All the Giant defense is accomplishing is keeping the team in games and being there when it is most important. Who wouldn’t want their defense to be that? The Giants haven’t been particularly effective against the run. The Giants are a league leader in sacks, 9.5 for Jason Pierre-Paul. It hasn’t mattered who the Giants have played, when the defense has been good, they’ve stopped ‘em all. And visa versa.
There haven’t been many explosions from this offense but if you’re looking for yards, give the ball to Frank Gore. Barring injury, he’s a lock for a thousand yards. And next to “effectively manages the game” is a picture of Alex Smith. He’s thrown only 10 TD’s but more importantly, only 2 picks. Vernon Davis is what the 49ers drafted him to be a solid tight end. Having won 7 of 8, offensive confidence is soaring.
The ‘9ers don’t dominate offensively. And the Giants don’t dominate defensively. Scoring late will be the issue. Expect a big day from Gore.
49ers D vs. Giants O
As the saying goes, you’ve got to be able to run the ball and stop your opponents from doing that. San Francisco is giving up 70 yards a game on the ground. They’re giving up just under 11 points per game over that last four. They’re putting pressure on quarterbacks with three players at 4.5 sacks or more. They have surrendered some passing yards, but that usually doesn’t result in scoring.
Eli Manning is making a name for himself in a season that has turned positive. When they lost at home to the Seahawks, few saw this offense leading the Giants to a division lead with a 6-2 record. Manning has been good if not great at times and hasn’t had his running game fully in place for much of the year. There has not been an easy game yet, but Manning has five late drives for wins. And Victor Cruz has made a bunch of big catches.
The Giants’ running game hasn’t been dependable, so the ‘9ers ability to stop the run isn’t such a big deal. Manning will have to withstand a solid pass rush and avoid turnovers to have another chance to win late.
Who will cover the spread?
There was a time this was an NFC title game. It could surely be a playoff game this year. These may be the two best under Green Bay. The unknowns: will the 49ers react to being on the big national stage in the late game, can Manning do it again?
The Giants are 2-0 against the spread as a road dog. The 48ers are 7-0 against the spread. Something’s got to give. The 49ers are on a major roll, but that’s only worth 3.5 point favorites. With the San Fran defense, this could be low scoring, but the winning side is more difficult than you think. Get this NFL pick for $20.
New England at New York Jets – Sunday @ 8:30 p.m. ET
Funny how things can change in a month. When these two teams met the first time, the Patriots seemed to be on an unstoppable journey to the AFC Title. And the Jets were stumbling badly on the way to a disappointing showing. That was a bit more than a month ago. This is now.
How they match up:
Patriots D vs. Jets O
What D? There’s no pass rush, therefore no pass defense. Although the Pats were solid defensively for the first portion of their game with the Giants, they couldn’t stop anything late. In their previous game, the Steelers didn’t have to punt. Early on, the Patriots’ defense was designed to slow down the opposition and get the ball back to the offense as quickly as possible. It looks like they’ve been figured out.
The offense has had rough spots to get through in most games. But, when needed, they’ve come through. No bigger moment than last week in Buffalo. The offense took advantage of some great defense to score big in the 3rd Q. Mark Sanchez has multiple targets to throw to and his running game is improving with Shonn Greene getting the bulk of the carries. Not well oiled yet, but the offense is coming through at big times.
The Patriots defense should be to Sanchez’ liking. If the Jets’ defense can slow down the Patriots’ offense, the Jets will have a chance to get scores that go unanswered. Bill Belichick will be working on the defense, but unless a pass rush shows up on his doorstep, Sanchez will feel secure behind his line.
Jets D vs. Patriots O
The Jets are resurging defensively. They turned a high scoring Bills’ offense into an ineffective one. They turned over the Chargers’ potent offense at the most opportune times. And they shut down Miami. Darelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie have 7 interceptions between them. Their ability to cover receivers gives them some liberties with their pass rush. This defense is starting to get it going.
The Patriots’ offense hasn’t sputtered according to standards set in the rest of the league, but the quick timing throws Tom Brady is known for completing have been less available to him in recent weeks. Opposing defenses have finally caught on that Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker are Tom’s favorite targets. There’s been more pressure on the line, less space given to New England receivers. And they don’t run much.
The Pats’ offense has looked ordinary in their last two games. Change in approach will come this week or sometime soon. Brady has been frustrated lately and this is a team that can surely frustrate with their defense.
Who will cover the spread?
It’s as if the season starts today for the Pats, Jets and Bills. If evolution can be trusted, the Jets seem to be the hotter team right now. The unknowns: can Bill Belichick adjust sufficiently with the players he has or will there need to be some personnel moves, or have the Jets finally gotten the pieces they‘ll need to be in place clicking as the stretch drive arrives?
This is the first time the Patriots have been an underdog, even though it’s just a point. They’re 4-4 against the spread. The Jets are 3-1 against the spread as a home favorite. Essentially, this is a pick ‘em game. The doubt appears to be can the Jets keep Brady under control enough to win? If the Pats win, they’ll have the tiebreakers against the Jets. And they’ll take a lead in the division. If the Jets win, they’ll have the Patriots right where they want them…the rear view mirror. So this is a battle of wills. If you’d like to know whose will is more powerful, click here and buy our expert NFL pick for $20.
Minnesota at Green Bay – Monday @ 8:35 p.m. ET
The Vikings are feeling better about life in general since inserting Christian Ponder under center. They gave the Pack all they could handle in the dome and beat Carolina, possessors of another top flight rookie quarterback. The Packers can see the other 31 NFL teams if they just look down.
How they match up:
Vikings D vs. Packers O
In their first meeting, the Packers rolled up some pretty big numbers especially in the third quarter. The defense will have to mimic the other three quarters if they’re to hold the Pack to a reasonable total. Chicago and the Pack are the only ones who’ve scored more than 30 against Minnesota. Jared Allen continues to be one of the best if not the best pass rusher in the business.
No team has held the Packers to less than 24 points yet. The Vikings appeared to be doing well in their first meeting but Aaron Rodgers and company went deep in the 3rd quarter and made the Vikes pay. Rodgers has lifted himself into conversations concerning the best quarterbacks who’ve ever played. And Grant Jennings is always open and usually behind the defense.
The Vikes will have to be consistent in order to hold the Pack down. They are impossible to stop. Slowing them down will be the best Minnesota can hope for.
Packers D vs. Vikings O
The Packers are giving up almost 300 yards per game through the air. They have a tendency to take chances, attempt to make big, perhaps scoring plays with their athletes. They’ve got 16 interceptions and 19 sacks. They don’t just let you execute your game plan. Charles Woodson doesn’t seem to have lost a step. Shows you how crazy rankings can be. The pass D is 31st.
Adrian Peterson has been there from the beginning, but Ponder is learning fast. His numbers aren’t great but there seems to be an energy with the offense that Donovan McNabb did not bring. Ponder is learning as he goes, but this will be the second against the SB champs in his first three starts. He was more effective against Carolina and threw no picks in that game.
It seems unfair when a ball hawking defense gets a rookie in their crosshairs, but that’s the way the game is. Ponder can know that in subsequent weeks, his work will likely have more room for improvement when the defense isn’t wearing green and gold.
Who will cover the spread?
The Vikings are clearly playing for the future. Green Bay’s biggest enemy in a game like this would be complacency. But they’ve not had much trouble with that issue so far. The unknowns: will Ponder and the offense be able to give their team a chance in the end, or will the Packers continue their strong motivation toward a second straight championship?
The Vikings are 3-1 against the spread as an underdog. The Packers are 3-0 against the spread as a home favorite. This is a clear case of present versus future. Of course, with Rodgers at the top of his game, a 13 point spread shouldn’t be much trouble. Only question is will Rodgers and his team come out firing on Monday Night Football against a nationwide audience. And will the spread be beatable. Get this NFL pick for $20.
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