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NFL Week 3 Picks

NFL Picks




Tampa Bay at Dallas - Sunday @ 1:00 PM EST

First impressions can be misleading in the NFL.  Just when you thought the Bucs had pulled off the upset in New York, Eli Manning stole the show.  Just when you though winning in New York would be all Dallas needed to launch a great season, they stumbled in Seattle.

How they match up:

Buccaneers Defense vs. Cowboys Offense

The Bucs are yielding just 52 yards per game on the ground.  Then again, why would you try to run on a team that is giving up 400 yards through the air.  CB Eric Wright had an impressive run on his pick-6, one of three picks for this defense.  There were expectations for DT Gerald McCoy, but no lineman really stood out for TB on Sunday.  They yielded 21 first downs through the air.  

The Cowboys were one dimensional against Seattle, not something one may have expected.  And Tony Romo wasn’t all that accurate.  The Cowboys had just one drive of more than 10 plays. DeMarco Murray was dependable against the Giants in the opener but didn’t get 50 in Seattle.  Dallas was unable to get it going in the second half.  They were shut out.

Very difficult to know which of these units will prosper.  Tampa is vulnerable to the pass, but Dallas can’t just depend on their QB. Eli’s come from way back on others, and you’d wonder if the TB D won’t be a bit hung over from his effort last week.

Cowboys Defense vs. Buccaneers Offense

This game is full of question marks.  How is it that Dallas took care of business in New York on the day the Giants got their goodies as champs, but couldn’t do it in the northwest without much spotlight.  You can’t blame the defense for Seattle’s first 10 points, but with the offense going nowhere in the second half, Dallas couldn’t take the ball back even once last week.

The defense put the offense in position for some scores in last week’s game, but when the offense needed to do their part in the second half to hold off the on charging Giants, they could not.  Josh Freeman is a slimmed down QB, but 15-28 with 2 picks wasn’t enough to chalk up another win. Freeman is better when he’s throwing short, clock controlling passes like he did in week 1.

Which D will it be?  Tampa Bay may have to do it with less than average amounts of points this season and the Cowboys are certainly capable of seeing to it that they don’t have enough in this game.  Dallas needs to get pressure on Freeman and be as sharp as they were in week 1.

Who will cover the spread?

Tampa Bay is a different team so far under Greg Schiano.  But they blew a chance to start 2-0 and then drew attention to themselves for diving after a kneel down at the end of the Giants game.  The Bucs have at least served notice that they’ll show up and give it their best.  That’s something you can never be sure of with the Cowboys.  The team everyone wants to see was on display in week 1 and still on the airplane in week 2.  It has been rare to get outhit by Seattle over the years.  But Dallas did.  The Cowboys are favored by 7.

This is Dallas’s home opener.  It won’t be a friendly place if Tampa gets it right this time.  The Bucs have an aggressive defense that can get burned by the well conceived offense.  Surely Tampa can’t come into the Cowboys home and shoot their dog and steal their wife can they?  Is 7 enough?  Just click here and the sheriff will let you know which team is which this week in Dallas…



Cincinnati at Washington - Sunday @ 1:00 PM EST


These are two teams trying to ride up the ladder in very difficult divisions.  And as is usually the case, there have been good days and bad days for the youngsters.  This is a crucial game for both. They are both charged with staying in contention with usually stronger entries from the tops of their divisions.

How they match up:

Bengals Defense vs. Redskins Offense

This defense has to pick up more of their share of the load.  QB Joe Flacco made it look easy in the week 1 and rookie QB Brandon Weedon kept coming in week 2.  They gave up over 400 yards against the Browns and allowed them to match their scoring pace to keep the game interesting in the second half.  They didn’t pick the mature rookie once and forced just one fumble.  

A rookie rarely bursts on the scene and goes unscathed week after week.  For QB RG III in week one, he had his way with the Saints.  The improving Rams wouldn’t just let him wheel and deal although the ‘Skins had their opportunities.  Check for WR Pierre Garcon’s health.  Griffin needs all his weapons to be at his best.  Alfred Morris has been a capable running back.  Especially when RG III is expected to carry it.

Cincinnati’s defense has had better days than what they’ve been showing in the first two weeks of the season.  They aren’t taking the ball away as much as they did a year ago.  The Redskins offense has been putting points on the board, but opposing D’s are likely to come up with new challenges for the young buck.

Redskins Defense vs. Bengals Offense

It’s been a bad week.  LB Brian Orakpo and DE Adam Carriker are done.  That’s a double blow not many defenses could take. The D has yet to hold an opponent under 30 points.  They gave up 23 first downs to the Rams.  St. Louis controlled time of possession. The defense did give Washington chances in the 4 th quarter.  They got the ball back with 2:40 left for one last attempt.  

Cincinnati had fun against the Browns last week, and if week 1 can be any indication, Cleveland’s defense is respectable. Cinci’s offense didn’t get off to a very good start in Baltimore.  Andy Dalton had a great game in their home opener.  His QB rating was 128.2.  Not only did AJ Green have a good day, but newcomer Andrew Hawkins looks like he’s got star potential.  

Plugging injury created holes is the big need for Washington this week.  They lost two very capable defenders and S Brandon Merriweather is likely to sit as well.  The Redskins D will be asked to just slow the Bengals down.  Dalton looked like he’s ready to take advantage of his weapons last week.

Who will cover the point spread?

Lessons are learned each week when a QB is just out of college.  Just ask Andy Dalton.  He’s already taken a beating once this season.  RG III is looking good, but it wasn’t enough to keep the magic going in week 2.  Washington’s defensive losses are going to be difficult to overcome.  Injuries are a way of life in the NFL and Mike Shanahan is well aware.  Cincinnati’s defense hasn’t done much in the first two weeks, so we’ll have to see what they come up with to control the rookie on the other side of the ball.  

The Redskins are giving 4.  Not sure if Cincinnati has earned back the respect they gained in a surprising season last year. This one has the makings of a shootout.  And both of these teams need a win to keep the pace with the stronger teams at the tops of their divisions.  The difference may come from the Redskins’ defensive bench.  Can they do it?  Get our expert NFL pick for only $20.



Green Bay at Seattle - Monday @ 8:30 PM EST

The Seahawks rarely get on Monday Night Football at all and rarely against a team others want to see play.  The spotlight will create some serious buzz in the Pac Northwest.  Green Bay is used to those lights, but have some issues of their own to clear up.  

How they match up:

Packers Defense vs. Seahawks Offense

The win over Chicago, a long time ago, may have proven how good the 49ers are.  The Pack dominated that night.  And it was the defense that led the way.  They shut the Bears out in the first half and yielded just 11 first downs in the game.  Total yards?  168.  4 picks.  The Bears couldn’t run on the Pack, couldn’t throw on the Pack and didn’t get close to beating the Pack.  They answered all the questions.

The win over Dallas may have proven how good the Cardinals are.  Just when you thought maybe the Seahawks’ pre season excitement was a product of the gung-ho HC Pete Carroll, Seattle dominates a previously admired Dallas team.  QB Russell Wilson is a rookie that isn’t playing like one.  Sure, the coaches are giving him what he can handle.  RB Marshawn Lynch is helping quite a bit.

The Packers’ defense terrorized the Bears.  If they come with the same vigor in Seattle, it will be tough for a rookie to overcome that.  But, again, this is spotlight time for a team that is trying to stay with the undefeated in their conference.  And there are two of them.

Seahawks Defense vs. Packers Offense

Seattle kept Dallas from getting anything cooking.  The Packers’ receivers can expect challenges all over the field.  That’s how they kept WR Dez Bryant under wraps and you’d think they’ll try that with Aaron Rodgers’ many weapons.  CB Brandon Browner and CB Richard Sherman popped Dallas receivers on the line repeatedly.  They seem more comfortable playing at home.

What more needs to be said about this team’s offense.  Well, some have challenged QB Aaron Rodgers’ leadership qualities. Of course, those who’ve challenged that don’t actually play.  Rodgers has many targets. WR Greg Jennings may or may not be there on Monday.  The extra day should help if he’s on the borderline.  As usual, it would be nice if Green Bay could get some yards on the ground.

This is another one of those offenses that defenses just want to limit.  Since they had success against the team that beat the defending champs, it would appear the Seahawks have some confidence that they can do just that.  The stadium is loud and that should help the home team.

Who will cover the spread?

The Seahawks, in their short history with Coach Carroll have been very up and down.  At some point if they are going to step up and challenge the brutal SF 49ers, they’ve got to win games like this.  It’s a home game against a recent Super Bowl Champ.  The effort will need to be big.  For Green Bay, they just responded to those who questioned their defense’s manhood. They are used to stringing together great games.  Motivation is there to make a statement on Monday night.

The road team, Green Bay is a 3 point favorite.  The pack are 7-4 against the spread in their last 11 road games.  And they are 5-2-2 against Seattle against the spread.  But, how much of the history can you throw out the window since the ‘Hawks have just started an upswing again.  The only way they can continue to climb in the hearts and minds of the NFL football bettors is to take the points and run with them.  Do they score?  Get our expert pick for only $20

 

 

New England at Baltimore - Sunday @ 8:20 PM EST

 

This is a nearly went to and did go to the Super Bowl rematch.  Missed field goals are the theme. Last year, Baltimore had ‘em beat but didn’t get the kick.  Last week, New England had their turf protected against the upstart Cardinals and they missed one.  These are still likely two playoff teams with SB hopes.

How they match up:

Patriots Defense vs. Ravens Offense

New England’s off season top priority was to improve their defense.  In two games, it looks like they have. Last week, they gave up just 245 yards.  They sacked Tennessee QB Jake Locker twice and took the ball away twice.  They held RB Chris Johnson to 4 yards.  For a change, they’ve yielding top ten amounts of yardage.  And that means limiting the opposition not giving up chunks.

Joe Flacco seemed to be the guy they were hoping he’d become in week 1.  Then, not so much in week 2. As badly as the Eagles played, he could never get them enough of an edge to hold Philly off.  RB Ray Rice is getting the ball enough finally. He’s got a 7 yard per touch average.  Baltimore needs to get time for their QB to be accurate enough.  They’ve scored points. They’re 1-1.  

New England has known how to keep the Ravens in check and it centers around Ray Rice.  Flacco has been using his tight ends quite a bit but that’s just to keep the chains moving.  The Patriots need to get pressure on the Ravens.  And they’ve been vulnerable to it against the better pass rushers.

Ravens Defense vs. Patriots Offense

With some key pieces missing, this defense’s personality has changed some.  They were unyielding in the opener against Cincinnati, but couldn’t hold off a late game winning drive against a struggling Eagle team. They gave up almost 500 yards to Philly.  They did pick QB Michael Vick twice, but the Eagles lead the league in turnovers.  This defense used to be dominant.  

We may be finding out how important Wes Welker is to Tom Brady.  Wes did have 5 catches last week, but it didn’t seem like he was the big target.  And Brady lost a big target for a while.  TE Aaron Hernandez is out.  Steven Ridley has become the go to running back, but his 71 yards were quiet ones in their loss to Arizona.  Brady took knees setting up the missed field goal. They may rethink that if it comes up again.

Brady and company can make any defense look bad.  And he’s done it to the Ravens from time to time. Both of these units are still trying to find themselves.  While Welker and the front office squabble over contract, and the TE corps shrinks, Brady must find answers.  They’re tough to find in Baltimore.

Who will cover the point spread?

As much as fans are prone to think revenge is on the minds of their teams, and it may be, it usually doesn’t play much of a roll when two combatants meet again.  More important is the “what if we lose?” question. The loser of this game will be 1-2.  It is certainly early, but falling behind in a league where they only play 16 games can be hard to erase.  New England’s division is less taxing that Baltimore’s so hard to believe as it may seem, Baltimore likely has the larger incentive in this game.  

The road team, New England is getting 3 points.  The last 4 games in this series were in New England.  That dates back to 2007.  The Patriots won that one and have won 5 of the last 6.  The only way to reverse these trends is to get into Tom Brady’s face.  That’s something Baltimore was more capable of doing in the past than they are now.  So, this is a continuation of the identity search each team is conducting on themselves.  Both can answer most questions, who knows?  But if you want to know who’s who and what’s what in this matchup, just click here and get our expert NFL pick for only $20. 

 

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