Jacksonville at Houston - Sunday at 1:00 p.m. EST
At 2-5, the Jags are a long shot to get close to the playoff race, but Monday’s win over Baltimore shows they are a shelf above chopped liver. Has Houston finally increased their intensity to the point where they follow the path others have thought they’d follow?
How they match up:
Jaguars D vs. Texans O
On most Sundays, this defense has been relatively tough to score on. The Jets whacked ‘em pretty good and the Bengals got ‘em for 30. More importantly, they’ve been in most of their games, just haven’t found a way to make that game winning stop. Until the Ravens came to town. B’more scored just once and Drew Coleman’s interception secured the win at the end. Overall this is a solid defense 6th against the pass, 10th against the run.
Overall offensive numbers are better for the Texans than the results have been. Arian Foster did it all last week and if you can’t stop him, the Texans will see to it that he gets the ball early and often. But Ben Tate went over 100 yards last week too. Matt Schaub was flawless a week ago. But, the intangibles have usually been part of Houston’s failures. They met the challenge a week ago. Will that mindset continue?
The Jaguars aren’t on Monday Night Football this week. So will their motivation be strong enough to get after Houston in a game the Texans must have? Schaub needs to find a way to beat a better defense than the one he faced a week ago.
Texans D vs. Jaguars O
The Texans D is an impact making unit. They have 19 sacks, 8 interceptions and 4 fumble recoveries. Mario Williams and Antonio Smith may be the best set of rush ends in the AFC. They get the ball back to the offense quickly, whether they take it away or make their opponents kick it away. The offense got well last week and so did the defense. They are hoping to make it last.
Last week’s numbers look like totals one would amass in a half of pro football. Blaine Gabbert never did get to 100 yards. His QB rating was 59. But he didn’t throw any interceptions and Maurice Jones-Drew helped keep the ball when they were able to. Not many weapons here. Gabbert is likely to get better as he goes, but nothing about Blaine’s play seems to suggest that advancement will come soon.
It’s out of the frying pan, directly into the fire for this offense. Gabbert will have to be limber to stay away from one of the best pass rushes in the league. Staying in the game will be the goal for the Jags.
Who will cover the spread?
If Houston is going to put this division away as they are expected to, games like this must be won. The lights won’t be on for this one, so Jacksonville will have to generate their own enthusiasm. Was last week a fluke? Did Houston just respond to ownership’s challenge? Did Jacksonville just play to the national TV audience? There’s a way to find out. Click here and get our winning NFL pick.
New England at Pittsburgh - Sunday at 4:15 p.m. EST
Goals are very similar for these two. Win the division, get to the Super Bowl. Seems like one of them is in every championship. The Pats have stumbled just once and have scored at will. The Steelers are a five win team that knows little about their long term prospects.
How they match up:
Patriots D vs. Steelers O
Don’t judge this unit by the numbers. Sure, they’re on the bottom of the league in pass defense, but they have 8 interceptions and seem to make big plays at important times. A win for this defense is holding an opponent to a field goal, ‘cause chances are there will be more points on their side of the scoreboard soon. They don’t do well in rushing the passer which likely skews their numbers against the pass.
The Steelers are the opposite of the Patriots on offense. They have become a pass first team, but timing patterns and a solid pocket for Ben Roethlisberger aren’t their way. It surely has something to do with Pittsburgh’s patchwork offensive line. They’ve not had the same group in place in two games in a row this year. But they may have the best overall group of wide receivers in the league. Ben won’t go down easy.
Expect points. If Ben can stay upright and have the time he needs to get it to his receivers, there’ll be scoring. And they can still run the ball, if they so choose. The Patriots D usually picks Ben once or twice.
Steelers D vs. Patriots O
The opposition hasn’t been great. But, this defense has been getting better as the season has gone on. Lamar Woodley has been racking up sacks and was credited with a safety in Arizona. Ike Taylor is having a big year covering everyone’s number one receiver. But, this team usually has big takeaway totals and so far, not so much. They’ve picked a QB twice and haven’t recovered a fumble in 7 games. The D line got younger when Aaron Smith went to IR.
How do you decide who to take away from Tom Brady. He’ll hit whoever is left. Wes Welker is his favorite receiver, but three others have 25 or more catches. To beat them, you either have to score last or have a multiple possession lead which is nearly impossible since Brady rarely is so efficient. If there is an open receiver on the field Brady will find him.
The only way for this defense to control this offense is with pressure on Brady. And with the weaponry that Brady possesses that is just a possibility, not a likelihood.
Who will cover the spread?
The Steelers have been vulnerable to the crossing pass routes the Pats love to use. If the game is close at the end, either of these quarterbacks is capable of directing a game winning drive. But, it may not be close. Which way you ask? Well, click here to find out which of these two juggernauts has the power to get over the top and come out with the win.
Washington at Buffalo - Sunday at 4:05 p.m. EST
Two great starts. Two teams coming off of losses involved in tight division races. Buffalo can‘t blink with the Patriots already ahead by a game and the Jets coming on. Washington has dropped two straight and is sinking fast.
How they match up:
Redskins D vs. Bills O
Numbers against Cam Newton and Carolina can be deceiving. Cam’s ability to make plays with his legs tests a defense that is used to dictating the way the game is going to be played. Washington couldn’t get the Panthers off the field and wore down late last week. But, this is a quality defense that has kept most of their opponents under wraps for most of their time on the field.
Buffalo had a week off to absorb the loss to New York. The Giants beat them much the same way they’ve beaten most others this season. The offense has been putting up big numbers but not what they had been doing against NY. Fred Jackson has been drinking from the fountain of youth over at Niagara Falls. They’ve got to do a better job of finishing drives with touchdowns rather than field goals.
Who’s on the fade is the big question. The ‘Skins defense didn’t have a very good week in Carolina. The Bills offense had a week off to reload. Buffalo has to get Jackson going early.
Bills D vs. Redskins O
This defense has been giving up yards and points like a bottom feeder. Their offense has bailed them out with great comebacks. They weren’t able to pull games out against the Bengals and Giants. Still, they do know how to take the ball away. They’ve had scoring from their defense. That’s hard to plan for but they obviously have takeaways high on their to do list.
Washington is trying to do it without a great quarterback. Rex Grossman wasn’t and John Beck isn’t. At least not yet he isn’t. Beck didn’t have his big receivers step up a week ago. He did get a nice day from Tim Hightower. They turned the ball over 3 times to Carolina’s once last week. Most importantly, Washington has to find a way to either score quickly or maintain possession, and Moss sitting out this week, might complicate the passing game. They did neither last week.
Beck is likely to be more comfortable in his second start. The Bills defense should have an easier time stopping this offense than, say, New England’s.
Who will cover the spread?
Most have been expecting a fall from the Bills. A win here, and they show they’re in it for the long haul. The rest of the NFC East is catching or has already caught the Redskins. Buffalo will be tough at home, especially if it’s a windy day as so often can be the case in upstate New York. But, you need more than a weather report. You need to know how this one will play out. We already know, so click here and purchase this expert NFL pick.
Dallas at Philadelphia - Sunday at 8:30 p.m. EST
Will a feel good moment be enough to turn the Cowboys into the team they’ve been until the closing moments in three of their games this season? Have the Eagles finally righted the ship toward a dream rest of the season?
How they match up:
Cowboys D vs. Eagles O
It is tough to run against these ‘Boys. Opponents are averaging under 70 yards per game. Demetrius Ware is someone that must be dealt with. Ware has 8 sacks himself, the team has 17. The linebackers are solid, with Sean Lee a leading tackler. The Rams weren’t a very good test. For a dominant defense, it must be troublesome that they’ve not been able to make the biggest stops in those three losses.
It used to be a criticism that Philly couldn’t run the ball. Not so much with LeSean McCoy and Michael Vick. The offense looked a bit more cohesive in their last game before the break, but the defense did a lot of the dirty work. Protecting Vick, giving him time, will be the main goal on Sunday night. DeSean Jackson needs to get the ball in space more, and a big return wouldn’t hurt.
If past performances can be any indication, Michael Vick is going to have to be at his mobile best. This defense can get pretty mean. The Eagles linemen have to keep him protected to expect excellence.
Eagles D vs. Cowboys O
So, the Eagles are another of those defenses that seem to do well until the game gets on the line. This defense, loaded in the off season with some of the best talent available is vulnerable, especially to the comeback. They struggle to cover the run. Their linebackers are young. Their toughest tasks are taking care of business when opponents are in space. Puzzling with the athletic talent on their defense.
DeMarco Murray was single-handedly responsible for jumping Dallas up in the rush stats standings with his record setting day against the Rams. They are already close to the top in the passing game. Tony Romo has established the fact that he’s a tough son of a gun, playing with healing broken ribs each week. The play calling has come into question since the Cowboys have not put games away when they had the chance to.
When the season began, this matchup seemed to favor the Eagle D, what with their off season acquisitions. But, that defense hasn’t gelled like they may have been expected to. Their four picks a week ago may be a sign that the substance is gelling. It’ll have to, the Cowboys have some weapons that are likely to give Philly a problem.
Who will cover the spread?
Just when the Eagles seemed to get things going in their direction, they had their bye week. Andy Reed is usually strong out of a break. Philly is still in desperation mode and the Cowboys can’t afford to lose either. Home field hasn’t helped much yet. The birds are 0-2 at the Linc. So, who’s desperation will take precedence here? The division seems to be up for grabs, but this NFL pick is an easy one for us.
San Diego at Kansas City - Monday at 8:35 p.m. EST
The Chargers had a better than usual September. Aside from last week‘s loss in New York, the Chargers are looking like the best in the AFC West. However, last year‘s best in the division is showing signs of life. And they weren’t a pushover the first time they met in San Diego.
How they match up:
Chargers D vs. Chiefs O
San Diego hasn’t been spectacular defensively, but they’ve made most of the necessary plays. They’ve been very good against the pass, but they’ve got to have some concern since Shonn Greene took ‘em for over a hundred last week. In their first meeting, the Chiefs had no first downs in the first half. Safety Eric Weddle has 3 interceptions including a Matt Cassel pick to lock down that Chargers’ win.
The Chiefs haven’t run the ball badly, even though there hasn’t really been a league leader doing the damage. The Chargers are witness to the resurgent tendencies of Kansas City. KC was completely shut down in the first half of the first meeting, then they nearly pulled out a win. Cassel has thrown 8 TD’s but has been picked 7 times.
San Diego can’t be real happy with the progression in New York, nor with the second half in these two teams’ first meeting. The Chiefs have won three in a row and seem to have shaken the doldrums they were in for weeks 1 and 2.
Chiefs D vs. Chargers O
It follows that the Chiefs defense played better in the second half against San Diego in their first meeting. And they just pitched a shutout, picking off Oakland throwers six times last week. The Chiefs seem to be getting some flashbacks from when they won the division last year. The first game between the two was the first time Kansas City showed any life and they limited a top flight offense to 20 points.
It’s difficult to know why this offense isn’t putting 30+ points on the board every week. They appeared headed toward 30 in week 3 against the Chiefs, then they were unable to keep it going. That’s been the problem with Phil Rivers and the offense, they’ve been quite inconsistent. They are putting yards together but that’s not equating to points often enough. Vincent Jackson has been great.
There are ways to attack this Chiefs defense that work more often than they don’t. Still, there is a level of familiarity here that often takes precedence over game plans. One expects the San Diego offense to start to pick up the pace in the second half of the season.
Who will cover the spread?
The Chiefs have won three in a row and appear to have their mojo back for a race to the playoffs. San Diego is still on top but coming off that Jets’ loss likely have some questions about themselves. The team that pulls this one out has an edge heading down the stretch. So, which one of these rivals can pull harder than the other? Click here to find out for only $20.
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